#1 2015-11-19 14:12:40

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#2 2015-11-19 16:57:40

Growth based evaluations in what is increasingly a negative growth/sustained income world; meh.  Measuring strength or investibility based on continuous sales/EBITDA increase is so 20th century it's farcical.

In this particular evaluation CAT if fully on cycle with growth age patterns and rates a "Hold" based on the value of sustainable maintenance and renewal contracts; there will be a measurable bite as argued in the quoted evaluation but that also could be considered a correction and simply taken as a write down by the company.  This was a foreseen occurrence and appears to have already been accounted for by most long term investors.

Expectations of investment growth in that Industry Segment should be tempered unless you have aspirations to be a rumor investor.  Otherwise this is a long view investment and is beginning to look ripe for evaluation.

Speaking from the Long View: Basically the vast majority of the worlds financial problems occur due to the expectation of positive growth during the age of negative/neutral growth, the education age has begun and human breeding for boredom/religion has withered.  Developed (and many undeveloped) countries are experiencing population decline across the board, revenue growth (outside of the "Fad" industries) will naturally follow suit.

Investment Analysts/Bloggers/Advisors hate this, they desire volatility - they make their money from "Churn" and they need to be able to sell you automatic growth in the Zero Interest rate age.

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#3 2015-11-19 20:42:30

They still have a market cap of 40 billion, compared to only 25 billion for John Deere, so I don't think they're closing the doors anytime soon.

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#4 2015-11-20 06:13:44

Adam Smith had a lot of things right yet he failed to properly comprehend the true limit to resources and the greed of mankind.

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