#1 2022-10-29 13:34:58

https://i.imgur.com/AW2Uhnx.png
Oh no!  Look, violent crime is the highest it's been in 10 years.  Well, it's not 2020 anymore, and this data is only through 2020, but you get the point... 

But in reality, when you look at the full graph.....
https://i.imgur.com/aQnENR7.png
Violent crime remains at historic lows, effectively "flat" (relatively speaking) at about 400 or so incidents per 100,000 people for each of the past 10 years as compared to the prior 25 (1985-2010).

It's easy to lie with data, when you (or your audience) have a pre-determined outcome, narrative, or bias in mind.  Also, when they can't be bothered to research, think critically, look at the full data picture, spend 5 seconds Googling, etc. etc. 

Basic data literacy is something we really need to get better at as a country.  It won't solve all of our problems, or even many of them.  But, it can certainly help move us back towards all living in the same shared reality - even if we continue to differ on what problems need tackling, and how to tackle them.

Sidenotes:

There was a major data system transition in 2021, and not all participating agencies fully made the switch.  As noted in the CDE site linked below, this means 2021 data (not shown in these graphs) isn't comparable to pre-2021 data.  I do not know if this holds true for 2022, but that annualized data isn't available yet, anyway. Changes in reporting systems, standards for what counts in certain categories, and all of those things can make a 15 second soundbite or summary hard to parse, especially without the full backstory and picture of all the inputs.

In addition, the obvious disruptions and atypical world we lived in due to the COVID pandemic in 2020, and to a lesser extent 2021 and 2022, obviously may have created statistical aberrations, both positive and negative, which can either be understood in that context, or used for nefarious purposes by those with an agenda.  Think hypothetical headlines like "Murders Up 250%" comparing 2021 to 2020, when, for instance, everyone being at home, a lot of social functions being shut down, etc. resulted in an abnormally low murder rate in 2020.  Or the other way - a lot of people out of work, economic pain finally caught up, people realized they weren't getting rehired in 2021...and got more desperate as the pandemic dragged on.  These are all reasons why data from the last 3 years is inherently going to be a bad source to draw overall trendline examples from.  Assuming anecdotal/talking points is actually pointing to real evidence at all, and not just dogwhistles designed to rile up the base of one political party just before the midterms.
Data Source:  FBI via https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.go … rime-trend

Last edited by DmtDusty (2022-10-29 13:36:12)

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#2 2022-10-29 15:39:26

Figures don't lie but, liars figure.  And graphs can be worse.  That violent crime graph does it correctly, stop at the next highest increment from the highest data point.  If you make the top 8000 instead of 800 it would look to the untrained eye like no crime at all, even though the data points did not change.

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#3 2022-10-30 13:40:36

I was checking this out just recently. Worth a look. She refers to some other books I have seen.

To some with skin in the game all the accurate info and attempts and clarifying with honest info may not make one hoohaa of difference. But at least it can let others around them discern where their mindsets are at.

Why our minds weren't built for truth

Long Now Foundation Oct 18, 2019 

Galef notes that "our capacity for reason evolved to serve two very different purposes that are often at odds with each other.  On the one hand, reason helps us figure out what’s true; on the other hand, it also helps us defend ideas that are false-but-strategically-useful. 

I’ll explore these two different modes of thought —I call them “the scout” and “the soldier”— and what determines which mode we default to.  Finally, I’ll argue that modern humans would be better off with more scout mode and less soldier mode, and I’ll share some thoughts on how to make that happen.”

An expert on rationality, judgement, and strategy, Julia Galef is founder of the Update Project and hosts the podcast “Rationally Speaking."

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