They're Back!

Fourteen presidential electors linked to efforts to reverse former President Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat are currently back on their states’ Republican slates of representatives to the Electoral College for the 2024 election

David Kallman is an attorney for one of Michigan’s 2020 pro-Trump electors, Choate, who is returning in 2024 as a potential Republican elector while facing eight felony counts, including conspiracy to commit forgery. Choate and other charged GOP electors have pleaded not guilty, and Kallman says they were relying on legal advice from GOP attorneys when they signed the second page of the certificate without reading the first, which states that for the 2020 election, they are the “duly elected and qualified Electors for President and Vice President of the United States of America from the State of Michigan.”

“Should these electors have read the documents and all of that? I'm not going to disagree with that,” Kallman says. “But the reality is that's not what they're charged with. They're charged with a crime for having intent knowingly to defraud, you know, to intentionally lie and do a false document. That is clearly not true.”

Ash Khare, one of Pennsylvania’s returning pro-Trump electors, says he does not consider himself a “fake elector” but instead a “genuine patriot that did the right thing,”...

“We would not be wise guys,” Khare says. “We were just trying to cover the bases in case the decision goes the other way.”

Asked for his reaction when first hearing about the charges against pro-Trump electors in other states, Khare says with a laugh: “What crossed our mind is that we were smart. They screwed up. They should have put the same caveat in like we did.”

Pretty sure this counts as market manipulation. Hasn't Elon gotten in trouble for this sort of thing?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/13/investin … index.html

But I bet he sells a bunch of shares, anyway. Pathological self-serving liar, and all that...

Is it even real? I think not.

FBI says it’s investigating apparent assassination attempt on Trump in Florida

By Kristen Holmes, John Miller, Kate Sullivan, Evan Perez and Jeremy Herb, CNN
Updated: 8:06 PM EDT, Sun September 15, 2024
Source: CNN

See Full Web Article

The FBI is investigating what it said is an apparent assassination attempt on Donald Trump at his Florida golf club Sunday, the second time in two months there’s been an apparent attempt on the former president’s life.

Trump is safe and was not harmed in the incident, his campaign said. West Palm Beach Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said during a Sunday news conference that his office was informed at 1:30 p.m. ET of shots fired by the Secret Service, when agents fired at a man who had a rifle in the bushes along the perimeter of the Trump International Golf Club.

Trump had been playing golf at the time, moving between holes five and six, a source briefed on the matter told CNN.

A Secret Service agent spotted a rifle barrel with a scope sticking out of the fence of the golf course and “immediately engaged” with the person, Bradshaw said. The agent who spotted the rifle, Bradshaw said, is part of a team that stays a hole or two ahead of Trump on the course. The person was 300 to 500 yards away from Trump, an official said.

The person fled the scene and was spotted by a witness, which ultimately helped law enforcement officials locate the vehicle driving north on I-95 in Martin County, one county to the north of Palm Beach.

“We are able to catch a witness that came to us and said, ‘Hey, I saw the guy running out of the bushes, he jumped into a black Nissan and I took a picture of the vehicle and the tag,’ which was great,” Bradshaw said.

The person in custody in connection with the apparent attempted assassination is Ryan Wesley Routh, according to three law enforcement sources.

Authorities alerted the Martin County Sheriff’s Office, which detained the person. The witness was able to then identify the man.

Officials said an AK-47-style rifle with a scope; two backpacks that were hung on the fence and had ceramic tile in them; and a GoPro camera were recovered at the scene.

The holes Trump was playing when the incident occurred are located on the eastern edge of the golf course.

The apparent assassination attempt at Trump’s golf course in Florida comes two months after an assassination attempt against the former president at a Butler, Pennsylvania, rally that sparked scrutiny of the US Secret Service.

Trump’s campaign said in a statement earlier in the day that the former president “is safe following gunshots in his vicinity.”

Trump — who had been golfing with donor Steve Witkoff, according to a source familiar with the matter — soon assured supporters that he was safe, too. “There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I AM SAFE AND WELL!” Trump wrote in a fundraising email that afternoon.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been briefed on the security incident involving Trump and they are both “relieved to know that he is safe,” according to the White House.

“I have been briefed on reports of gunshots fired near former President Trump and his property in Florida, and I am glad he is safe. Violence has no place in America,” Harris wrote on the social media platform X.

Biden and Harris, both of whom are in Washington, DC, with no public events Sunday, will be kept updated by their team. Attorney General Merrick Garland has also been briefed, according to Department of Justice spokesperson Dena Iverson.

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, wrote on X later Sunday that the former president is in “good spirits.”

“I’m glad President Trump is safe. I spoke to him before the news was public and he was, amazingly, in good spirits,” Vance said.

“He is one of the strongest people I’ve ever known,” South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham posted. “He’s in good spirits and he is more resolved than ever to save our country,” the Trump ally wrote.

This story and headline have been updated with additional information.

A GoPro in the bushes. That would have been a short but unique streaming career.

Fuck Me, We are deep into unknown territory at this point:

BorderCount wrote:

Have we all collectively slipped into the Twilight Zone?

If so, I'm going to wander off and play kick the can with my friends.

What we know about Ryan Wesley Routh, the man detained in connection with second Trump assassination attempt

By Rob Picheta, Jessie Yeung, Teele Rebane and Lex Harvey, CNN
Updated: 7:53 AM EDT, Mon September 16, 2024
Source: CNN

See Full Web Article

Ryan Wesley Routh put his enmity toward Donald Trump – the man he once supported but then dismissed as an “idiot,” a “buffoon” and a “fool” – at the center of a rambling and fanciful worldview that also fixated on Ukraine, Taiwan, North Korea, and what he called the “end of humanity.”

The 58-year-old, who was detained Sunday in connection with an apparent assassination attempt on the former president, protested in Kyiv after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and committed his ideas to paper in a self-published 291-page book.

Authorities suspect Routh, who owns a small construction company in Hawaii, was planning to attack the former President as he played a round of golf on Sunday, with US Secret Service agents firing at a man with a rifle in the bushes near the golf club. He was later apprehended after being stopped on a nearby highway.

For years, he criticized not only Trump but himself, describing Trump as “my choice” in the 2016 presidential election but later writing that he is “man enough to say that I misjudged and made a terrible mistake.”

Here’s what we know about Routh so far.

Who is Ryan Wesley Routh?
Routh’s thoughts and fixations on global politics appeared idealistic to some who came across him, but his writings show how he became increasingly militant about the geopolitical forces he railed against.

His business pursuits, by contrast, appear relatively unremarkable. On Routh’s LinkedIn page, he said he started a company in 2018 called Camp Box Honolulu in Hawaii, which builds storage units and tiny houses. A story in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser said he donated a structure for homeless people.

Routh also has ties to North Carolina, where public records show he registered as an “unaffiliated” voter without a party in 2012. He voted in that state’s Democratic primary in March of this year, according to public records.

Records from the state dating back decades also show Routh has had previous scrapes with the law – including being arrested in 2002 after he was pulled over by police and allegedly put his hand on a firearm, and then drove off and barricaded himself in a business premises.

He has also been involved in several court cases since the 1990s, with authorities repeatedly accusing him of failing to pay his taxes on time. Separately, judges have ordered him to pay tens of thousands of dollars to plaintiffs in various civil suits.

What were Routh’s views on Trump?
Routh became animated when writing about Trump, and he frequently weighed in on US and global current events on social media.

In June 2020, Routh appeared to say that he had voted for Trump in 2016, but that he had since withdrawn his support of the former president.

“I and the world hoped that president Trump would be different and better than the candidate, but we all were greatly disappointment and it seems you are getting worse and devolving,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “I will be glad when you gone.”

Routh also mentioned Trump in his book, which appears on Amazon without a publisher listed, and is titled “Ukraine’s Unwinnable War: The Fatal Flaw of Democracy, World Abandonment and the Global Citizen-Taiwan, Afghanistan, North Korea and the end of Humanity.”

In that publication, he described the former US president’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 as a “tremendous blunder” that drove Tehran closer to Moscow, which it then supplied with drones that have caused devastation across Ukraine.

He even commented on the first assassination attempt on Trump, when the former president was wounded by a gunshot during a rally in Pennsylvania in July. Routh encouraged President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to visit those wounded in the incident, saying: “Trump will never do anything.”

What were his ‘delusional ideas’ on Ukraine?
Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s 2022 invasion also became central to Routh’s philosophy; he expressed support for Ukraine in dozens of X posts that year, saying he was willing to die in the fight and that “we need to burn the Kremlin to the ground.”

He also visited Ukraine in 2022, according to video and photos geolocated by CNN and interviews he gave to international media during his time there. In a flurry of Facebook posts last year, he tried to enlist Afghan conscripts to fight in the war, presenting himself as an off-the-books liaison for the Ukrainian government.

A representative from Ukraine’s foreign legion confirmed with CNN that Routh had contacted them several times but said he was never part of the military unit in which overseas volunteers fight.

Oleksandr Shaguri, an officer of the Foreigners Coordination Department of the Land Forces Command, told CNN over the phone that “the best way to describe his messages is – delusional ideas.”

“He was offering us large numbers of recruits from different countries but it was obvious to us his offers were not realistic. We didn’t even answer, there was nothing to answer to. He was never part of the Legion and didn’t cooperate with us in any way.”

Newsweek Romania journalist Remus Cernea first met Routh in Kyiv’s Independence Square in June 2022, where the American was rallying people to join the foreign legion or to help Ukraine through various humanitarian aid organizations.

“For me, it’s a surprise because I viewed him as an idealistic innocent genuine person, without any murderous instinct,” Cernea told CNN following news of Routh’s detention in the United States.

According to Cernea, Routh described Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a “black and white… good versus evil” conflict.

In an interview with AFP news agency from Kyiv in April 2022, Routh said: “Putin is a terrorist, and he needs to be ended, so we need everybody from around the globe to stop what they’re doing and come here now and support the Ukrainians to end this war.”

He also weighed in on the political situations in Afghanistan, Taiwan and North Korea in his book. Routh has repeatedly voiced support for Taiwan and previously called for international intervention to protect the island against potential Chinese encroachment.

What have people said about him?
Routh’s eldest son, Oran, told CNN via text that Routh was “a loving and caring father, and honest hardworking man.”

“I don’t know what’s happened in Florida, and I hope things have just been blown out of proportion, because from the little I’ve heard it doesn’t sound like the man I know to do anything crazy, much less violent,” Oran wrote.

But other people have shared testimonies of tense interactions with Routh.

Hawaiian business owner Saili Levi told CNN he had paid Routh $3,800 up front to build a trailer for his business. But when Levi came to Routh’s shop to review his work, it was shoddy, he said.

Levi said when he asked Routh to improve the work via email, Routh ranted at him.

“He just kind of started ranting about, you know, ‘You think because you have money, you’re better than me?’” Levi said, adding that Routh also mentioned having gone to Ukraine to fight against Russia.

“I kind of decided maybe I should just let it go for the sake of my family,” Levi recalled.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics … ical-sign/

Analysis: Vance warns calling a candidate a ‘fascist’ can lead to violence but doesn’t mention that’s what Trump calls Harris

By Daniel Dale, CNN
Updated: 1:26 PM EDT, Tue September 17, 2024
Source: CNN

See Full Web Article

In the wake of the apparent assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump on Sunday, Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, argued in a speech in Georgia on Monday that the two recent attempts to kill Trump are evidence that “the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and needs to cut this crap out; somebody’s going to get hurt by it.”

Moments prior, Vance had criticized a Democratic congressman for saying last year that Trump must be “eliminated.” (The congressman apologized for a “poor choice of words,” saying he had been trying to talk about how Trump must be defeated in the election.) And Vance said: “Look, we can disagree with one another, we can debate one another, but we cannot tell the American people that one candidate is a fascist and if he’s elected it is going to be the end of American democracy.”

What Vance didn’t mention was that Trump has repeatedly told the American people that his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, is a fascist whose election would mean the end of the country itself.

In fact, Trump called Harris a fascist at least twice last week alone.

“She’s a Marxist, communist, fascist, socialist,” Trump said at an Arizona rally on Thursday.

“This is a radical-left, Marxist, communist, fascist,” Trump said while attacking Harris at a news conference on Friday.

This wasn’t new rhetoric. “We have a fascist person running who’s incompetent,” Trump told Virginia residents during a campaign stop in August; at an Arizona rally in August, Trump said the true divide in American politics is between patriots with traditional values and “these far-left fascists led by Harris and her group.”

And Trump has gone beyond saying that electing Harris would mean an end to American democracy. He has said this summer that electing Harris would mean “you’re not going to have a country anymore” and that “we’re not going to have a country left.”

A Vance spokesperson did not immediately respond to CNN’s request on Tuesday to explain whether Vance is calling on Trump to tone down his language, and, if not, what Vance sees as the difference between Trump’s words and the words from “the left” he was denouncing.

Vance argued in his Monday speech that there is not a “both-sides problem.” He said that while he acknowledges conservatives do not “always get things exactly right,” he said that the fact that “no one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in the last couple of months” demonstrates that the issue of incendiary rhetoric about presidential candidates is a one-side-only concern.

But Harris has faced violent threats for years, including in recent months. In August alone, a Virginia man and a Tennessee man were separately charged with making death threats against her.

BorderCount wrote:

I'm not sure you can be both "radical-left" and "fascist".

But frankly, Donald Trump and his enablers do NOT get to complain about inflammatory rhetoric or political violence. That ship burned down on J6.

MAGA has always had a problem with what's cooking in its pot. All too easy to excuse themselves from the table manners. Isn't one of the 4 horses favored out of that racetrack gate for the running of the Apocalypse named Justified?

A polarizing political activist has taken to social media to reveal how the FBI visited him at his New Hampshire home after he wrote a post saying: 'Anyone who murders Kamala Harris would be an American hero.'

Jeremy Kauffman, 40, published the now-deleted post to the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire's (LPNH) X account Sunday at 3am.

Follow-up posts added: 'The point of the second amendment is to shoot and kill tyrannous politicians' and 'encouraging politicians to be shot is legal under the first amendment. It's part of what makes this country great.'

WATCH: FBI shows up to intimidate resident, ends up leaving with tail tucked between their legs…

Last edited by Johnny_Rotten (2024-09-17 19:04:36)

Fact check: 12 completely fictional stories Trump has told in the last month

By Daniel Dale, CNN
Updated: 10:01 AM EDT, Thu September 19, 2024
Source: CNN

See Full Web Article

Former President Donald Trump is littering his public remarks with fictional stories.

This isn’t run-of-the-mill political spin, the kind of statistic-twisting and accomplishment-exaggerating that political candidates of all stripes engage in. Rather, the Republican presidential nominee is telling colorful lies that are completely untethered to reality.

Trump’s inflammatory assertion about immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, whom he baselessly accused at the September presidential debate of eating people’s dogs and cats, has received the most attention. But Trump’s lower-profile recent public appearances, like rallies and interviews, have also featured wholly imaginary tales.

Here are 11 additional examples from the past month alone.

Harris and the military draft
At a rally in Las Vegas last week, Trump claimed his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, is talking about forcing Americans to serve in the military: “She’s already talking about bringing back the draft. She wants to bring back the draft, and draft your child, and put them in a war that should never have happened.”

That’s absolute bunk. Harris is not talking at all about bringing back the draft.

Harris’ CNN interview
Trump claimed during a Fox News event in Pennsylvania in early September that Harris “had notes” to assist her during the television interview she did with CNN in late August. He even performed an impression in which he portrayed Harris supposedly looking down at these notes.

She didn’t actually have any notes.

Transgender children and schools
At an event held by a conservative group in late August, Trump claimed that schools are sending children for gender-affirming surgeries without their parents’ knowledge. He said, “The transgender thing is incredible. Think of it. Your kid goes to school and comes home a few days later with an operation. The school decides what’s going to happen with your child.”

Trump’s campaign subsequently made clear to CNN that it could not find a single example of such a thing having happened anywhere in the United States. Parental consent is required for gender-affirming operations; schools have not performed or approved these surgeries for minors behind their parents’ backs.

Even after Trump’s campaign demonstrated that it couldn’t substantiate the story, he repeated it days later at a Wisconsin rally in early September.

Harris and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Trump told a vivid story on Fox News in late August about how President Joe Biden supposedly sent Harris to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022 in an effort to prevent an invasion of Ukraine. Trump claimed Harris was sent “to see Putin in Russia three days before the attack. She went. She said – she gave her case. He attacked three days later. He attacked three days later. He laughed at her. He thought she was a joke.” Trump also told a version of the story at the September debate.

But this story, too, is wholly false.

Biden never sent Harris to negotiate with Putin – in fact, the Kremlin said in July that Harris and Putin have never spoken – and Harris did not travel to Russia just prior to the invasion. Rather, Harris traveled to a conference in Germany to meet with US allies, including Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky.

Harris’ identity
Trump claimed at a convention of Black journalists in late July that Harris used to “only” promote her Indian heritage, then “all of a sudden” made a “turn” and “became a Black person.” Defending the claim, Trump reiterated at the September debate that Harris had “put out” at some point that “she was not Black.”

None of that is true.

Harris – who was raised in a Black community and graduated from a historically Black university – has embraced her Black identity since her youth. While she has also fondly discussed her South Asian heritage, she never “put out” that she wasn’t Black.

Harris’ 2020 primary performance
Trump has repeatedly claimed during the last month that Harris was so unpopular when she previously ran for the presidency, in 2019, that she was the very first candidate to drop out of the crowded Democratic primary. “She was one of 22 people that ran. She was the first one to quit,” he said at a Pennsylvania rally in late August.

Not even close.

In fact, 13 other Democratic candidates dropped out of the race before Harris did – including the sitting or former governors of Washington, Montana and Colorado; the sitting mayor of New York City; and sitting or former members of the House of Representatives and Senate.

Opinions of Roe v. Wade
Facing heavy criticism from Harris and others for appointing three of the Supreme Court justices who overturned the Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision in 2022, Trump concocted a tale that this unpopular decision fulfilled the wishes of “everybody” – including “every Democrat.”

“Every Democrat, every Republican, everybody wanted Roe v. Wade terminated and brought back to the states,” Trump said on Fox News in late August.

This is not even remotely accurate.

Roe was consistently supported by a majority of the American public, and it was overwhelmingly popular among Democrats – with 80% support or better among Democrats in many polls.

Elections in California
At a September press conference in California, Trump claimed that “if I ran with an honest vote counter in California I would win California, but the votes are not counted honestly.” He had delivered an even more colorful version of the claim in an interview in late August, saying, “If Jesus came down and was the vote counter, I would win California, okay?”

More rubbish.

The votes are counted honestly in California, as they are in every other state; Trump loses California because it is an overwhelmingly Democratic state that has not chosen a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. He lost the state in 2020, fair and square, by more five million votes and more than 29 percentage points.

A ‘Man of the Year’ award in Michigan
Since 2016, Trump has told a lie that he was named “Man of the Year” in Michigan before he entered politics. Media outlets including CNN have repeatedly noted that Trump never got such an award and that the award doesn’t even appear to exist. But Trump claimed at a Michigan event on Tuesday that he has now been vindicated.

“The press said, ‘Oh, it never happened.’ Well, then it did happen. They found out where it was,” Trump said. “But it was like 15 years ago, a beautiful area, but nobody remembered it; nobody remembered it all. All of a sudden, like through a miracle, they found out it did exist.”

That’s a lie on top of a lie. The media has not discovered proof that Trump got a Michigan Man of the Year award.

His campaign didn’t respond Wednesday to a request to explain what he was talking about.

Migrants, prisons and ‘the Congo’
For months, Trump has told a story about how “the Congo” has deliberately emptied prisons to somehow get its criminals to come to the United States as migrants. “Many prisoners let go from the Congo in Africa, rough prisoners,” he said at an August event in Arizona. At an August rally in Pennsylvania the week after, he said, “In the Congo, in Africa: 22 people deposited into our country. ‘Where do you come from?’ ‘The Congo.’ ‘Where in the Congo?’ ‘Jail.’”

But Trump has presented zero evidence that “the Congo” has actually emptied any prisons for migration purposes. Representatives for the governments of both the Democratic Republic of Congo and the neighboring Republic of Congo have told CNN on the record that the claim is fiction, experts on the two countries say they have seen no evidence it is true, and Trump’s campaign has ignored requests to offer any substantiation.

The jobs revision
After the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics announced in August that its annual revision of jobs data found that the economy added about 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the 12 months ending in March, Trump told a story about how the government had been planning to announce this downward revision “after November 5th,” Election Day, but was forced to do so before the election because of “a whistleblower” – “a patriot leaker.”

Another fabrication. The Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly releases the preliminary revised data in August, and it had disclosed the precise date of this particular data release – August 21 – weeks in advance.

William Beach, a conservative economist who was appointed by Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wrote on social media: “For those who think the big revision to the BLS jobs numbers ‘leaked’ and was meant to come out after the election, remember that BLS always announces its draft revisions in August and announced this year’s date, August 21, many months ago. It is important to check your facts.”

...he referred to himself as a “black NAZI!” and expressed support for reinstating slavery,

“Slavery is not bad. Some people need to be slaves. I wish they would bring it (slavery) back. I would certainly buy a few,” he wrote.

“I like watching tranny on girl porn! That’s f*cking hot! It takes the man out while leaving the man in!” Robinson wrote. “And yeah I’m a ‘perv’ too!”

In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Robinson repeatedly denied that he made the comments on Nude Africa.

Robinson, who would become North Carolina’s first Black governor if elected, also repeatedly maligned civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., attacking him in such intense terms that a user accused him of being a white supremacist.

“Get that f*cking commie bastard off the National Mall!,” Robinson wrote about the dedication of the memorial to King in Washington, DC, by then-President Barack Obama.

“I’m not in the KKK. They don’t let blacks join. If I was in the KKK I would have called him Martin Lucifer Koon!” Robinson responded.

Last edited by Johnny_Rotten (2024-09-19 19:36:23)

Our intrepid GOP Governor candidate  Mark Robinson, sure had some interesting adult hobbies. picturesque too.

Some very nice looking Germans here Minisoldr. Some great poses on them too. Another excellent looking group of Germans, I can't imagine any 1/6th WWII collector wouldn't want to own! Special thanks for sending them in and sharing them with us. - GL

I'm pretty sure math isn't his strong suit. Nor is forming coherent sentences.

The Queen can't even bring herself to look at the miserable bastard.

If you're really fat nothing fits well unless you can pay to have everything custom tailored.  And even then, you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

DmtDusty wrote:

He should wear a Caftan.

He should wear a death shroud.

Trump holds up the March 1990 issue of Playboy at a campaign rally in Farmington, New Hampshire

BorderCount wrote:

Even for Trump, that is NOT a flattering picture. Also, some moron thinks he's gonna get $10k for a (used!) copy of that on Ebay.

Sticky pages, no doubt.

Trump’s promises would spike inflation and wipe out jobs, study finds

By Matt Egan, CNN
Updated: 8:00 AM EDT, Thu September 26, 2024
Source: CNN

See Full Web Article

Former President Donald Trump has promised to attack the United States affordability crisis by imposing immense tariffs, carrying out unprecedented deportations and even influencing interest rate decisions.

However, a new analysis finds that the Republican presidential nominee’s plans for tariffs, deportations and the Federal Reserve would not only fail to solve inflation – they would make it much worse.

The Trump agenda would cause weaker economic growth, higher inflation and lower employment, according to a working paper released Thursday by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In some cases, the damage could continue through 2040.

“We find that ironically, despite his ‘make the foreigners pay’ rhetoric, this package of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world,” the Peterson Institute working paper from researchers Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan and Marcus Noland concluded.

The paper represents the most comprehensive analysis to date on the combined impact of Trump’s trade, immigration and Fed proposals.

The findings are stark.

Even in a “low” scenario where only 1.3 million undocumented workers are deported and other countries opt not to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs, employment (measured as hours worked) would fall by 2.7% in 2028 relative to a baseline forecast, according to the paper.

Inflation would climb to 6% by 2026, the researchers found. By 2028, consumer prices are 20% higher.

US gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic growth, would be 2.8% lower than otherwise by the end of Trump’s four-year term.

The researchers also modeled a “high” scenario that incorporates retaliatory tariffs from other nations and 8.3 million undocumented workers getting deported. In that scenario, employment would be 9% lower than baseline by 2028 and inflation would surge to 9.3% by 2026. GDP would be 9.7% lower than otherwise.

The changes proposed by Trump would “cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy,” the paper found, adding that in some cases benefits would be conferred onto other economies.

The analysis assumes that the 2017 Trump tax cuts are extended, though it does not incorporate his proposals to end taxes on overtime, tips and Social Security benefits.

CNN has reached out to the Trump campaign for comment.

The No. 1 issue
In the past, the Trump campaign has pushed back on warnings that his policy proposals would worsen inflation and harm the economy.

“So-called economists and experts doubted President Trump’s economic plans in his first term. They were proven wrong then and they’ll be proven wrong again,” Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign national press secretary, told CNN in a statement earlier this month. “President Trump’s plan will result in millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars returning home from China to America.”

The findings come as a CNN poll out this week finds that the economy remains far and away the No. 1 issue for voters. About 4 in 10 likely voters (41%) say the economy is the most important issue for them, well ahead of the next-closest issue of protecting democracy at 21%.

Despite warnings from mainstream economists about the damage that some of Trump’s economic policies would do, the former president still has an edge on the critical issue. Likely voters say they trust Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris to handle the economy (50% Trump to 39% Harris).

A Covid-like ‘shock’
The paper found that all three of Trump’s policies on immigration, trade and the Fed would “cause a decline in US production and employment…as well as higher US inflation.”

But the most damaging element of these policies would be his immigration crackdown.

Trump has called for deporting perhaps 15 to 20 million undocumented people in an effort to fight crime, bring down inflation and help workers.

“People pouring into the country are killing the jobs of Black and Hispanic people,” Trump said on Tuesday during a speech in Georgia.

McKibbin, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, told CNN in a phone interview that mass deportations would cause a Covid-like “shock” to the supply of workers. He noted that an estimated 16% of workers in agriculture are undocumented.

“Can you imagine taking 16% out of the labor force in agriculture?” McKibbin said, adding that the cost of food would go up. “And unless you let them back in, you will have a permanent loss of supply.”

‘Greatest things ever invented’
On the trade front, Trump has held up tariffs as a way to create a “manufacturing renaissance” in the US. He has proposed a 10% to 20% across-the-board tariff on all US imports as well as a 60% tariff on goods from China.

At an event in Michigan last week, Trump praised tariffs as the “greatest things ever invented.” In Georgia this week, Trump said the word “tariff” is “one of the most beautiful words I’ve ever heard.”

Yet the Peterson Institute research finds that Trump’s tariff and other plans would backfire – hurting manufacturing more than any sector. That means the same factory workers Trump says he is trying to help would be hurt the most.

“If other countries retaliate, as many likely would, a recession in the year after the increase in tariffs would be a serious threat,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an email.

Fed interference
In what would be a significant break from recent history, Trump has indicated that he would try to exert direct power over Fed policy on interest rates.

Last month, Trump said he feels “strongly” that the president should “have at least a say in there,” noting that he has “made a lot of money” and was “very successful.”

Trump later walked the comments back a bit, telling Bloomberg that a president “certainly can be talking about interest rates,” but that “doesn’t mean I’m calling the shots.”

The Peterson Institute researchers noted that the concern is that the president would “press the Fed” to keep rates artificially low to boost the economy.

The paper found that erosion of Fed independence would cause higher inflation, capital outflows, a significant loss of value for the US dollar and higher unemployment – all of which would “worsen American living standards.”

“Countries that have independent central banks have much lower inflation,” said McKibbin, noting that Argentina’s central bank has grappled with political interference and today it has the highest inflation in the world.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who was nominated by Trump in 2017, cautioned against any effort to interfere with Fed independence.

“People have found over time that insulating the central bank from direct control by political authorities avoids making monetary policy in a way that favors, maybe, people in office as opposed to people who are not in office,” Powell said in response to a question from CNN. “We do our work to serve all Americans. We’re not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, any issue, nothing.”

Loyalty Test

Read the JD Vance Dossier
We’re publishing the supposed Iran-hacked document. Here’s why.

Behold the dossier.

It reportedly comes from an alleged Iranian government hack of the Trump campaign, and since June, the news media has been sitting on it (and other documents), declining to publish in fear of finding itself at odds with the government’s campaign against “foreign malign influence.”

I disagree. The dossier has been offered to me and I’ve decided to publish it because it’s of keen public interest in an election season. It’s a 271-page research paper the Trump campaign prepared to vet now vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance. As far as I can tell, it hasn’t been altered, but even if it was, its contents are publicly verifiable. I’ll let it speak for itself.

“The terror regime in Iran loves the weakness and stupidity of Kamala Harris, and is terrified of the strength and resolve of President Donald J. Trump,” Steven Cheung, communications director for the Trump campaign, responded when I asked him about the hack.

This is not the Steele Dossier of 2016, with its golden showers and anti-Trump fanfiction. Unlike the Steele Dossier, which was both fraudulent and discredited, the Vance Dossier is factual and intelligently written. No Jason Bourne style capers appear, and there’s no sleaze. Instead, the Vance Dossier enumerates pretty reasonable liabilities as a then-contender for VP nominee,

We spent $200 billion on Ukraine.

Surplus equipment and bombs from the manufacturing plants which their GOP masters own.  Also, it turns out there is a limit to what we'll spend to defend freedom.