I wouldn't put it passed Trump to be running Russian war policy based on Spite for Ukraine not backing up his bid to investigate Biden. Such a poisonous man must be stopped, but that is at least understandable.

It is too horrible to contemplate there is some other delusional thinking born of spite surrounding the Trump admin's internal assessment of our foreign security. Delusions and conspiracies like the domestic politics they spoon feed to gaping Maga mouths. That would be whacked.

I would prefer to believe their Russia war policy is driven by some sort of craven, yet rational calculation that they can get more favors from Putin than they can from Ukraine.

I mean Bush sold lies and delusions to go to war, but that was all about neo-conservative influence and corrupt resource capture. They had a logical conception of how geopolitics worked. They miscalculated, obfuscated facts and were wrong about much. But they knew what they were doing all along.

But if Trumpian conspiracies are involved here, lord deliver us from this madness.

Last edited by Johnny_Rotten (2025-03-04 17:25:40)

A good overview from the War College of what they teach. On how Russia views themselves and why they do not see being a part of the West's economic and diplomatic world order like we do.

Due to fundamental differences in world view between a maritime power and continental empire, what we see as cooperation leading to mutual growth and prosperity, they see as a fundamental attack on their need to gain resources and security in a zero sum game.


He mentions that their grand strategy is not to escalate to open warfare with Nato, but rather the preferred method is undermining institutions, and eroding ability to respond through other means. Which are much less costly to implement. Having clear sphere of influence.

Goals of Russian State Sponsored Operations

"A country focused inward is less likely to intervene abroad"
Raise enough doubt about a situation so as to reduce chances of a response
Discredit Western claims and approaches
Sharp Power: Find ways to penetrate a target society and use leverage for achieving deterrence or compliance
Information, cyber, economic means

...When we look at countries like Bellarus, Ukraine, Georgia; if you have been thinking about them as part of your gathering in, that's why I referred you to Ivon III, if you view these territories as well they really should be connected to Russia in some way, then effort to bring them into the west by definition is extracting them or pulling them out of the Russian sphere and therefore is viewed as a hostile set of policies by the Russian establishment.

So we've tried and there have been efforts to try, over the last 20 years where Putin has been president or prime minister,  are there ways in which the United States in Russia could work this out?

A lot of it has to do and this is something in your educational experiences that you'll have here and ongoing throughout the rest of your careers in the national security field is why we spend time looking at cognitive mental maps of leaders and we look at Putin's mental map and the mental map that Putin has, which is shared by his associates and his subordinates, so it's not just a question of one individual ual but it's a question of an establishment that it can be difficult for the United States to find Common Ground if you're dealing with a leadership that thinks of the world in terms of 19th century arrangements, which is where great powers meet, you pull out the maps, you divide in spheres of influence. You don't think in terms of international law but you think in terms of swaps and trades and compromises.